Network Operator Forecast Through 2027 (December 2022 update)

Network Operator Forecast Through 2027 (December 2022 update)

This forecast spreadsheet details MTN Consulting’s forecast for revenues, capex, headcount, and other metrics across three segments of network operators: telecom operators (telcos), webscale network operators (webscalers), and carrier-neutral operators (CNNOs). The spreadsheet provides 2011-21 actuals and projections through 2027, and includes projections from past forecasts for reference.

Revenues from the aggregate of our three segments – telco, webscale, and carrier-neutral – were $4,121 billion (B) in 2021, and will grow to $5,755B by 2027. Three segment capex ended 2021 at $536B, and will likely hit $646B in 2027. Most of the growth is from webscale. In 2011, webscale was less than 10% of capex, but had grown to 33.2% in 2021 and will progress upwards to over 41% by 2027. Telco capital intensity peaks in 2022 at 18% in 2022 and heads towards a bit more than 16% by 2027. Webscale capital intensity averages around 8% for the forecast period, with a big piece of the near-term upside coming from Meta/Facebook. Capital intensity is highest in carrier-neutral, as usual, well over 30% for the whole forecast period.

Headcount across the three operator segments has grown dramatically in the last decade, from 6.48 million in 2011 to 8.86M in 2021; it’s likely to hit 10.2 million by 2027. Nearly all of the growth is from webscale, with a good portion of this growth on webscale’s ecommerce side (e.g. Amazon, Alibaba, and JD.COM). Telco headcount continues to shrink.

There are hundreds of network operators across the globe, of various types. This report covers about 200, across the telco/webscale/CNNO market. The interactive Excel model provides 2011-21 actuals and projections through 2027, and includes projections from past forecasts for reference.

Please Note: This product is delivered as a Excel File.